Why is Latin America on fire? It’s not just climate change, scientists say|拉丁美洲为什么会着火？科学家说，这不仅仅是气候变化
Rampant planting of flammable non-native species has helped to fuel deadly blazes — even in places known for cool, damp weather.
易燃的非本地物种的猖獗种植助长了致命的火灾-即使是在以凉爽潮湿的天气而闻名的地方。
In Chile, more than 130 people have died in this year’s wildfires — the deadliest in the nation’s history. In Colombia last month, wildfire smoke billowed just outside Bogotá, defying the city’s reputation for cold, wet weather. And in Argentina, a wildfire ravaged a forest that is listed as a World Heritage Site by the United Nations cultural organization UNESCO.
在智利，今年的野火造成130多人死亡，这是该国历史上最致命的一次。上个月在哥伦比亚，博戈塔外的野火浓烟滚滚，无视城市寒冷潮湿天气的声誉。在阿根廷，一场野火摧毁了被联合国教科文组织列为世界遗产的森林。
These wildfires add to the destruction from record-setting fires in the Amazon in October 2023. This is not a normal pattern: in many parts of the region, wildfires are not part of the landscape’s natural history, except for blazes caused by “occasional lightning strikes”, says Francisco de la Barrera, an environmental scientist at University of Concepción in Chile.
这些野火增加了2023年10月亚马逊创纪录的火灾造成的破坏。智利康塞普西翁大学的环境科学家弗朗西斯科德拉巴雷拉说，这不是一种正常的模式：在该地区的许多地方，野火并不是自然历史的一部分，除了“偶尔的雷击”引起的大火。
But scientists say that the flames have been fanned by a combination of a strong El Niño climate pattern, a profusion of non-native trees and climate change. Researchers warn that the same factors could put other cities on the continent at risk.
但科学家们说，强烈的厄尔尼诺气候模式、大量的非本土树木和气候变化的结合，助长了这场大火。研究人员警告说，同样的因素可能会使非洲大陆的其他城市处于危险之中。
“We are very worried, because each new fire is bigger, more threatening and with an ever-greater impact,” says de la Barrera.
“我们非常担心，因为每一场新的火灾都更大，更具威胁性，影响也更大，”德拉巴雷拉说。
Climate change’s fiery legacy
气候变化的火热遗产
Catastrophic fires have multiple causes, but climate change is one of the key drivers, says climatologist Maisa Rojas Corradi, who is Chile’s environment minister. In the past decade, the country has had 16 megafires, which coincided with “the highest temperatures recorded for central Chile”, Rojas says. A megadrought that descended on the region in 2010 is one of the longest in a millennium, says Wenju Cai, a climatologist at Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, in Melbourne.
智利环境部长、气候学家Maisa Rojas Corradi说，灾难性的火灾有多种原因，但气候变化是关键驱动因素之一。罗哈斯说，在过去的十年里，该国发生了16起特大火灾，与“智利中部有记录的最高气温”相吻合。位于墨尔本的澳大利亚国家科学机构CSIRO的气候学家蔡文举（Wenju Cai）说，2010年降临该地区的一场特大暴雨是千年来最长的一次。
Climate change is also cutting cloud cover and shrinking glaciers in the Chilean Andes, says Cai. That means a decrease in reflected sunlight and, as a result, increasing temperatures.
蔡说，气候变化也在减少智利安第斯山脉的云层覆盖和冰川萎缩。这意味着反射的阳光减少，结果是温度升高。
This year, the effects of climate change have been amplified by a strong El Niño climatic pattern, Cai says. Warm sea-surface temperatures off Chile’s coast have intensified inland temperatures and fuelled “warm easterly winds blowing across the Andes from Argentina toward Chile, fanning the fire,” he says.
蔡说，今年，气候变化的影响被强烈的厄尔尼诺气候模式放大了。他说，智利沿海温暖的海面温度加剧了内陆的温度，并助长了“从阿根廷吹向智利的安第斯山脉的温暖东风，助长了火势”。
Where forest and city meet
森林与城市相遇的地方
Humans have also provided ample fuel for local wildfires with well-intentioned tree planting. In the twentieth century, eucalyptus trees native to Australia were planted on the hills surrounding Bogotá, to stop heavy erosion, says Dolors Armenteras, a biologist at the National University of Colombia in Bogotá. Eucalyptus was chosen because it grows quickly and adapts well to a variety of conditions.
人类还通过善意的植树为当地的野火提供了充足的燃料。波哥大哥伦比亚国立大学的生物学家多洛尔斯·阿门特拉斯说，在20世纪，原产于澳大利亚的桉树被种植在博戈塔周围的山上，以防止严重的侵蚀。选择桉树是因为它生长迅速，适应各种条件。
The planting had a “noble goal”, says Trent Penman, a bushfire scientist at the University of Melbourne in Australia, but large numbers of eucalyptus trees provide a bounty of flammable material in the form of bark sheddings. These ignite readily, producing numerous embers that can blow across roads, rivers and other fuel breaks, quickly spreading fire.
澳大利亚墨尔本大学的防火科学家特伦特·彭曼说，种植桉树有一个“崇高的目标”，但大量的桉树以树皮脱落的形式提供了大量的易燃物质。这些燃料很容易点燃，产生大量的余烬，可以吹过道路，河流和其他燃料断裂，迅速蔓延火灾。
The planting had a “noble goal”, says Trent Penman, a bushfire scientist at the University of Melbourne in Australia, but large numbers of eucalyptus trees provide a bounty of flammable material in the form of bark sheddings. These ignite readily, producing numerous embers that can blow across roads, rivers and other fuel breaks, quickly spreading fire.
澳大利亚墨尔本大学的防火科学家特伦特·彭曼说，种植桉树有一个“崇高的目标”，但大量的桉树以树皮脱落的形式提供了大量的易燃物质。这些燃料很容易点燃，产生大量的余烬，可以吹过道路，河流和其他燃料断裂，迅速蔓延火灾。
De la Barrera says that non-native trees played a part in the fires in Chile. According to the country’s agriculture department, forest plantation areas in the Valparaiso region — the scene of January’s deadly fires — doubled in size to more than 41,000 hectares between 2006 and 2021. Eucalyptus accounts for almost 40% of the area covered by plantations in Chile.
德拉巴雷拉说，非本土树木在智利的火灾中发挥了作用。根据该国农业部门的数据，瓦尔帕莱索地区的森林种植园面积-1月份致命火灾的现场-在2006年至2021年间翻了一番，达到41，000多公顷。桉树占智利种植园面积的近40%。
“In the last 20 to 30 years, the cities [have moved] much closer to plantations,” de la Barrera says, adding that populations on the rural–urban fringe of cities are at greater risk of fire in the future.
“在过去的20到30年里，城市[已经]更接近种植园，”de la Barrera说，并补充说，城市城乡边缘的人口未来面临更大的火灾风险。
A fire foretold 一场火灾预言
“When I saw the fires in Bogotá, it was like seeing a Chronicle of a Death Foretold,” says Tania Marisol González, a conservation ecologist at Bogotá’s Pontifical Javeriana University. She’s referring to a novel by Colombian Nobel prizewinner Gabriel García Márquez in which no one in a small town can stop a murder, despite many opportunities to do so — a parallel to the inability to stop wildfires.
“当我看到博戈塔的大火时，就像看到了一部死亡预言的编年史，”博戈塔宗座哈韦里亚纳大学的保护生态学家塔尼亚·马里索尔·冈萨雷斯说。她指的是哥伦比亚诺贝尔奖得主加布里埃尔·加西亚·马尔克斯的一部小说，在这部小说中，一个小镇上没有人能阻止一场谋杀，尽管有很多机会这样做–这与无法阻止野火的情况类似。
Latin America needs to take more preventive action, González says, including reducing fuel loads and building firebreaks. Armenteras says that fire risk could be reduced on the edges of Latin American cities by replacing invasive trees in these transitional zones with native species that are less susceptible to fire. But more research is needed before such a programme could begin.“We do not know enough about the flammability of the species in Latin America; we do not know which species can be used,” she says.
冈萨雷斯说，拉丁美洲需要采取更多的预防措施，包括减少燃料负荷和建造防火带。Armenteras说，在拉丁美洲城市的边缘，可以通过用不太容易着火的本地物种取代这些过渡区的入侵树木来降低火灾风险。但在这样一个项目开始之前，还需要进行更多的研究。她说：“我们对拉丁美洲物种的易燃性了解不够;我们不知道哪些物种可以使用。”
Rojas, the Chilean environment minister, says that the government’s job is to make the country more resilient to fires. One possibility, she says, is to promote “biodiverse landscapes, with protected water sources and firebreak areas, especially in the urban–rural interface. This will reduce the risks to people and nature.”
智利环境部长罗哈斯说，政府的工作是使国家更能抵御火灾。她说，一种可能性是促进“生物多样性景观，保护水源和防火区，特别是在城乡交界处。这将减少对人类和自然的风险。
But a long road lies ahead: de la Barrera warns that the steps proposed by Rojas will require substantial legal and regulatory changes.
但前面还有很长的路要走：德·拉·巴雷拉警告说，罗哈斯提出的步骤将需要进行实质性的法律的和监管改革。